We all know its happening. We’ve heard reports of parts being ordered, large scale marketing plans beginning and rumored launch dates. From my perspective, the question of what this means to the industry is far more important than the specifics of the launch. Timing is everything in this industry, and I believe that the timing is late for the iPhone on Verizon.
If this launch had happened 2009, I think it would have had a transformative impact on the industry. Android would have been significantly slowed, maybe even stopped dead in its tracks. Sprint and TMobile would likely have bled enough customers to merge or be acquired. Apple would have locked down the two largest carriers and erected significant barriers to entry.
As it stands today, the mobile industry is not at all what it was a year ago. Android offerings have matured rapidly, due to their protected incubation at Verizon, TMobile and Sprint. According to Nielsen, the platform stands poised to surpass the iPhone’s market share in Q1 of this year. To say that Android offerings are competitive with the iPhone is an understatement, so Apple definitely has its hands full in competing with them. On the other front is Microsoft, with a recent launch of Windows Phone 7. Those who would take Microsoft lightly should remember the XBox’s story as proof of what can happen with an unlimited supply of money. Windows Phone 7 will very quickly gain market share, mostly at the expense of the Blackberry.
Its this environment that serves as the launch bed for the Verizon iPhone. The marketing campaign should begin full tilt before too long, and I’m sure it will usher in a very successful initial launch. However, the iPhone will be spread across more than one carrier at that point. Along with that dilution will come a decrease in effective control over the carriers. The days of AT&T being in their pocket completely will be over. Its for this reason that I believe the rumor that the iPhone will launch as a Verizon exclusive. Apple will need that bargaining chip to ensure that its preferred experience is maintained, and Verizon needs to suck up as much AT&T market share as possible without passing any on to TMobile and Sprint.
So what does all of this mean? In the short term, I expect initial excitement and a resurgence of buzz surrounding the iPhone. Correctly positioned launches will gain far more exposure than they normally would have. In the long term, having the iPhone on all four carriers will reduce Apple’s position of control. I expect the trend of Android’s growth and Rim’s decline to accelerate. Currently, most developments begin with the iPhone as a priority and Android as a secondary. This trend will reverse over the next several years. With Apple, Google, RIM and Microsoft all holding significant market share, there will be a greater need than ever for cross platform solutions such as those offered by PhoneGap and Adobe. Hopefully, they will have matured significantly and will allow for rapid and stable cross platform development.
